Although no one on the Pittsburgh Penguins wants to admit it openly, the early stages of the offseason seem to indicate that some sort of rebuild is underway.
It may not be a total rebuild, a scorched earth where everyone is getting rid of, but it’s pretty clear that the Penguins are looking to the future with their offseason moves. They’re focusing on acquiring future draft picks, making short-term free agent signings that seem like reclamation projects, and doing nothing to make the team measurably better in the short term.
There are still a few months left before the team reports to training camp this offseason, so it’s still possible, if not likely, that more changes will be made, but let’s take a look at the moves that have been made so far.
Acquire Kevin Hayes and a second-round pick
The first major move of the offseason is probably the one that should have given your expectations for what’s to come a boost. The Penguins sort of bought a future second-round pick for $7 million by paying off the remainder of Kevin Hayes’ contract.
The good news is that the Blues might be bad this season, which could make this second-round pick a pretty high selection. Maybe in the top 45. Maybe even the top 40.
This could be a valuable asset. But the harsh reality is that unless this pick is used as a trade asset, there is probably only a 30% chance this pick becomes an NHL player. It is very possible that Hayes plays more games for the Penguins over the next two years than this pick ever will.
Does this excite you?
I guess it all depends on your expectations and hopes. If you were hoping the Penguins would try to seriously compete this season, burning down what’s left of your salary cap to play a Jeff Carter replacement so you can get a lottery ticket in a year’s time probably doesn’t fill you with much excitement (and it doesn’t for me).
But if you’re of the opinion that the Penguins’ streak with this current core is over and it’s time to start turning the page, the extra asset is probably more valuable.
Note: D
Penguins sign Blake Lizotte
Kyle Dubas definitely has a bottom-six forward type. He loves his defensive-minded penalty killers who can’t really score, and Lizotte certainly adds to that growing list.
But actually, Lizotte doesn’t bother me because I think he is at least correct in what is asked of him.
Among the 434 forwards who have played at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 play over the past three years, Lizotte ranks 34th in the NHL in expected goals per 60 minutes and 46th in goals against. Those are solid defensive stats. None of the recent defensive-minded lower-tier additions have scored that high over the same span.
He’s just 26, his contract is limited to two years, and the salary cap hit is under $1.8 million. It’s also a nice change from last year’s bottom-of-the-table additions who were significantly older and signed for more money over a longer term.
He will also bring speed and energy to a team that needs both.
If you want to fill your bottom half with players like this, this is a good pick. A solid pick. Maybe my favorite pick of the offseason so far.
Grade: B+
Penguins sign Anthony Beauvillier
It is a classic gamble of a rehabilitation project in the hope that a new start can provide a boost.
Prior to the 2023-24 season, Beauvillier was a fairly productive center winger who could be counted on for 15 goals and 40 points. Those numbers dropped in 2023-24 as he bounced around the league playing for Vancouver, Chicago and Nashville.
The biggest factor in his drop in production has been a shooting percentage that has dropped to 4.8 percent. Prior to last season, he was shooting 10.4 percent for his career. It’s not unreasonable to expect some sort of positive regression and a slight increase in his goal production this season. It’s just a question of whether or not it’s enough to matter, whether it’s in terms of winning or using him as a trade deadline asset.
It’s not a huge cost ($1.25 million), but it’s a really boring decision with limited upside potential.
Note: C
Reilly Smith traded to New York Rangers
The object of the game was simply to get rid of as much of Smith’s $5 million salary as possible.
For whatever reason, Smith didn’t work out as expected, and it was one of the contracts that cluttered the salary cap this year. So the Penguins traded him, while retaining 25 percent of his contract, for a 2027 second-round pick and a conditional fifth-round pick (the lesser of the Rangers’ two picks).
Overall, it’s good. I don’t think Smith is a major loss, it opened up over $3 million in cap space for this season, and they got more in return for Smith than they gave for him (a third-round pick) despite the fact that he was coming off a worse season.
I think my only complaint here is that if you’re keeping the salary, I wish the pick had been made a little earlier. But that might have been out of the Penguins’ control, mainly because the Rangers no longer have their 2025 and 2026 second-round picks. And I can’t imagine the trade market for Smith was robust enough for them to get a similar deal from another team. So I think they got what they could.
Grade: B+
Penguins sign Matt Grzelcyk
Of the free agent drafts, I think this is my least favorite. He’s another one-year reclamation project, but I don’t see much of a rebound chance here. He was once a favorite of the analyst community, but his play has rapidly declined in recent years, and he’s already 30. I guess I’m measuring this based on – why not just draft a quality PO like Joseph and keep him for what might have been a cheaper (or at least comparable) price for a younger player with more upside?
Note: D
Penguins Sebastian Aho
I don’t mind this one. Aho isn’t going to transform their defense or change the game, but as a 5th-7th defenseman, I like him. He’s cheap ($775,000 per season for two years), has had some success in protected roles (among Islanders defensemen who played 1,000 minutes over the last two years, he was the best in expected goals share), and is only 27 years old. You’ll need at least eight or nine NHL-caliber defensemen to get through an 82-game season and that’s solid depth at a cheap price.
Category B
On an individual basis, most of these moves are fine. There aren’t any bad long-term deals here (a nice change from last offseason) and they added some future assets and made some salary cap room this offseason. It’s just hard to fully understand the vision right now because they’re not fully committed in one direction or another. They’re more looking to the future, but not really committing to it. They’re kind of trying to put good players on the ice this season, but not really committing to trying to win. You can’t have your cake and eat it too, because that usually just leads to more mediocrity down the road.
They tried to do more of the latter (all focused on competing) last season, but just made a lot of bad choices (less Karlsson and Smith, even though the latter didn’t work out).
This offseason, they seem a little stuck in the middle.