This weekend Despicable Me 4 looks set to take over the top spot as another animated sequel vies for dominance in the summer competition. With the fourth installment of Illumination set to release on Wednesday, July 3, how does this upcoming long weekend compare to the previous three years of Independence Day frames?
Weekend of July 4, 2021
3 days (July 2-4) Total gross: $69 million
4 days (July 2-4) Total gross: $87.1 million
- The first post-pandemic July 4 weekend was a poor showing in a market with a limited share of moviegoers. The second weekend of F9: The Fast Saga ended the extended weekend with a 3-day gross of $23 million and a 4-day gross of $29.1 million. That was before the debut of The Boss Baby 2: Family Affair And The Eternal Purgewhile A Quiet Place, Part II held 4th place during its 6th weekend.
Weekend of July 4, 2022
3 days (July 1-4) Total gross: $189.9 million
4 days (July 1-4) Total gross: $223.5 million
- 2022 saw substantial improvement, rebounding significantly with Minions: The Rise of Gru opening at $107M over 3 days / $123M over 4 days as reserves Top Gun: Maverick And Elvis completed the Top 3.
Weekend of July 4, 2023
3 days (June 30 – July 2) Total gross: $128.2 million
5 days (June 30 – July 5) Total gross: $196.3 million
- The weekend of July 4, 2023 was marked by the disappointment of the opening weekend of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destinytopped the chart with a $60.3 million 3-day / $83.8 million 5-day launch. The result is significantly lower Kingdom of the Crystal SkullThe $100.1 million, three-day Memorial Day kicked off 15 years ago.
The good news is that the total box office is expected to far exceed last year’s, even if we only consider this week’s Top 3. But how Despicable Me 4‘s performance is seen both within its own franchise and in the shadow of the juggernaut that is Inside Out 2? We also have two openers we don’t expect to crack the Top 3: Ti West X/pearl end of the horror trilogy Maxxine (3-day opening weekend forecast $6M-$10M) and Angel Studios’ faith-based adoption drama The Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot (3-day opening weekend forecast $4-8 million), both targeting different audiences.
The box office podium
Top 3 Movies at Domestic Box Office Predictions | July 5 – 7, 2024
Week 27 | July 3 – 7, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Price Ranges | Weekend 27, 2024: $140M – $190M
1. Despicable Me 4
Universal/Illumination | NEW
Opening Weekend Grossing Range: $70-85M (3-Day) | $115-135M (5-Day)
The Boxoffice Company Showtime Dashboard Market Share: 36%
Benefits
- Universal’s animated hit factory, Illumination, had its biggest success last year with The Super Mario Bros. movie.which grossed $574.9 million in the United States and $1.36 billion worldwide, becoming the second-highest-grossing animated film of all time in the United States (under The Incredibles 2) and WW (under Frozen 2). They also released their second lowest-grossing film (above). Hop) with Migrationwhich still managed to gross $127.3 million in the US and $297.5 million worldwide. One was based on an iconic media property that transcended generations, and the other was Migration.
While Pixar rebounded dramatically this year with Inside Out 2 After years of struggle, Illumination is known for creating reliable original brands like Sing, The Secret Life of PetsDr. Seuss movies and Despicable Me/Minions. The latter is arguably the studio’s crown jewel, with the previous five films having grossed over $4.6 billion worldwide over the past 14 years. All five films in the series have been released in July, and three of them saw big activity over the Fourth of July weekend in particular:
- Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) – $107M over 3 days / $123M over 4 days
- Despicable Me 2 (2013) – $83.5M over 3 days / $143M over 5 days
- Despicable Me 3 (2017) – $72.4M over 3 days / $99M over 5 days
Our forecast panel presented a range that takes into account both underperformance and over-indexation possibilities for Despicable Me 4. The median range for the full 5-day opening weekend is $125 million. The expected scorching weather (on the East Coast in particular) could also mean increased business for air-conditioned theaters and an increase in those Contemptible Numbers.
The film is already in international release, with $25.4 million in revenue from 20 territories. Current top markets are Australia ($9.6 million, week 2), Argentina ($5.3 million, week 2), Chile ($2.3 million, week 1), Colombia ($1.5 million, week 1) and New Zealand ($1.4 million, week 2). The film will open in Spain, Mexico and Brazil by this weekend, with additional key markets planned for July and August.
The inconvenients
- This will be the sixth film in the Despicable Me The last film came out only two years ago. If the film doesn’t have at least the same success as the previous one, it could be a sign of brand fatigue… even if the film is a real hit. It’s a curse of the “constant growth” needs of modern studios, even if they have many successful family products (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4) is proving to be a boon for exhibitors. Rotten Tomatoes’ current critical rating of 63% isn’t the best, though previous poorly rated entries (Minions at 56%, Despicable Me 3 58% were all bulletproof children’s toys.
2. Inside Out 2
Disney/Pixar | Week 4
Weekend Price Range: $27-35 Million (3 Days)
The Boxoffice Company Schedule Dashboard Market Share: 14%
Benefits
- Having already crossed the billion dollar mark worldwide with $1,014 billion ($469.4 million domestically), Inside Out 2 looks set to cross the $500 million Rubicon as it continues The Incredibles 2 ($608.5 million U.S./$1.24 billion worldwide) to become the #1 Pixar film of all time in the U.S. and worldwide. It will easily surpass Finding Dory ($486.2 million domestic/$1.025 billion global) before Friday.
The inconvenients
There is no doubt that Gru and his Minions will put a brake on the wing of Inside Out 2So the real race for second place is between Pixar’s blockbuster film and A quiet place: first day. There’s also the internal pressure of how it stacks up against Pixar’s other recent hits. Here’s a comparison chart of the third frame… and no, you’re not seeing things, they really were all virtually identical:
- Inside Out 2 – 57,520,208 million dollars (-43%)
- The Incredibles 2 – 46,417,761 million dollars (-42%)
- Finding Dory – 41,817,176 million dollars (-43%)
- Toy Story 4 – $33,860,355 (-43%)
- Upside down – 29,771,224 million dollars (-43%)
3. A quiet place: first day
Paramount | Week 2
Weekend Price Range: $23-33 Million (3 Days)
The Boxoffice Company Schedule Dashboard Market Share: 13%
Benefits
Paramount’s sci-fi horror prequel A quiet place: first day was a high point for the trilogy, even if the best start of the series was on par with the series as a whole…
- A quiet place: first day (2024) – Opening at $53M (3,708 screens)
- A quiet place (2018) – Opening at $50 million (3,508 screens)
- A Quiet Place, Part II (2021) – Opening at $47.5M (3,726 screens)
The success of alien invasion films during the Independence Day weekend (Transformers franchise, Men in black franchise, War of the Worlds, Independence Day) suggests that the subgenre itself offers a form of cathartic appeal in the United States in particular. As the only non-animated title on the market with mass appeal, the film could reach a young adult audience feeling overwhelmed by weekend offerings from Illumination and Pixar.
The inconvenients
The audience score on RT is currently at 73%, indicating some disappointment from the audience of more than a quarter of those who expressed an opinion. This drop in word of mouth could translate into a sharp drop for this title in its second half, perhaps by 60% or more. How did the previous two perform in their second half?
- A Quiet Place – $32,970,049 million (-34%)
- A Quiet Place Part 2 – $19,266,977 million (-59%)